|Publish Date:||28 Mar 2020|
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A low pressure system is currently located 950 km northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar and is still expected to intensify as it moves further southeastward into the Mozambique Channel. The system is then expected to maintain its strength as it brings heavy rainfall to northwest Madagascar 30 and 31 March. Currently the system is expected to become a tropical storm, but it is not expected to intensify into a typhoon. The situation will be monitored carefully for any changes in the track or intensity of this system.
Confidence: Confidence for the track and intensity for the system continues to be low due to model uncertainty. However, it it is likely that moderate to heavy rains will occur along the northwest coast of Madagascar and along the northwest highlands on 30 and 31 March.
Forecast for Madagascar from 29 March to 01 AprilTimingNorthwest coast of Madagascar and highlands in northwest Madagascar: Moderate rains are expected from 29 March to 01 April. Heavy rains are expected 30 March to 31 March.Precipitation TotalsNorthwest coast of Madagascar and highlands in northwest Madagascar: 150 to 215 mm of rain with up to 250 mm in isolated areas along the coast and along elevated terrain.WindsNorthwest coast of Madagascar: Sustained winds of 35 to 55 kph, with gusts of up to 80 kph along the east coast. ImpactNorthwest coast of Madagascar and highlands in northwest Madagascar: Local flash flooding is possible, along with elevated water levels in local streams. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain.
Figure 1. 7 day forecast rainfall total Sources: ECMWF; GFS; JTWC;