|Publish Date:||07 Apr 2020|
Analytical Briefs are compiled by WFP OMEP. Subscribe to the OMEP mailing list.
Tropical Depression Peipah (Domeng) is currently located 1500 km southeast of Manilla, Philippines and is still expected to maintain the same intensity as it progresses towards the eastern Visayas and eastern Mindanao. The system will begin to bring heavy rains to the eastern coast of Mindanao in the evening of 10 April, and then slowly move to the north and reach the east Visayas by 12 April. Although the system is expected to remain week, local flooding is expected due to the slow movement of the system.
Confidence: Confidence for the track and intensity for the system continues to be average to below average. Some uncertainty still exists in the exact track of the system, with more recent models favoring a more southern track through southern Mindanao instead of through the Visayas. However, models have been very consistent in the past few days in the intensity of the system, and no major storm is expected to develop.
Forecast for the Philippines from 10 April to 15 AprilTiming- Eastern Mindanao: 10 to 12 April.
- Visayas: 12 to 14 April.
Precipitation Totals- Eastern Mindanao: 175 mm to 225 mm. Heaviest amounts along the east coast.
- Visayas: 125 mm to 175 mm. Heaviest amounts along the east coast.Winds- Eastern Mindanao: 50 to 60 kph with gusts up to 75 kph. Highest gusts along the coast.
- Eastern Visayas: 40 to 50 kph with gusts up to 60 kph. Highest gusts along the coast.Impact- Eastern Mindanao: Local flooding is likely, especially in urban areas and regions of steep terrain.
- Eastern Visayas: Local flooding is likely, especially in urban areas and regions of steep terrain.
Figure 1: Expected Track of Tropical Depression Peipah
Sources: ECMWF; GFS; PAGASA; JTWC;