|Publish Date:||12 May 2020|
Analytical Briefs are compiled by WFP OMEP. Subscribe to the OMEP mailing list.
A weather system will bring the chance for moderate to heavy rains across portions of central Afghanistan 16 and 17 May. Due to recent flooding across Central Afghanistan and landslides in northeast Afghanistan, additional rainfall increases the risk for local flooding and landslides.
Confidence: Confidence for moderate to heavy rainfall across Afghanistan remains above average. However, due to the uncertain nature of showers and thunderstorms, actual rain amounts will vary widely, even within a province. Updates will be provided as conditions evolve.
Forecast for Afghanistan from 13 May to 17 MayTiming- Central Afghanistan: 16 and 17 May. Mainly dry conditions are expected from 13 to 15 May.
Precipitation Totals- Central Afghanistan: 30 to 50 mm.
- Bamyan, Daykundi, Baghlan Takhar and Paktika Provinces: 40 to 70 mm. Heaviest amounts in higher elevations.
Impact- The greatest risk for landslides remains in the provinces of northeast Afghanistan of Takhar and Badakhshan.
- The greatest risk for additional flooding includes the mountainous provinces in central Afghanistan of Bamyan, Daykundi, Baghlan, Takhar and Paktika Provinces.
Figure 1 Forecast for 1 week rainfall. Sources: ECMWF; GFS;