Early Warning Web Service, Drought Watch

Drought and Food Insecurity

Countries in Crisis/Facing Unfavorable Prospects for Crops:

Countries experiencing food emergencies
Countries facing unfavorable prospects

Current Drought and Food Insecurity Conditions by Country:

Africa

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Burkina Faso: Food Security Worsening in Several Departments

As of May 2007, following last year’s record crop, an increasingly tight food situation is reported in several areas where 2006 crop yields were sharply reduced because of delayed rains or floods. These include some departments of the provinces of Komandjari and Gnagna (East), Bam and Sanmentenga (Centre North), Lorum and Passoré (North) as well as Sahel region. The results of the joint Government/WFP/UNICEF/FAO/WHO mission undertaken last September show a serious nutrition situation in the whole country, a trend which has been worsening for the past ten years.

Burundi: Flood Impact Affecting Food Security

As of May 2007, the January Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission led by FAO and WFP indicates that up to 2 million people are in need of food assistance. These include 500,000 people under core activities and an additional 1.5 million people under a specific emergency response, afte r much of November’s and January’s harvest were partly affected by heavy rains and floods. The assessment indicated a major reduction in food production of 42% compared to the pre-crisis period of 1993 and a reduction of 7% compared to last year’s harvest during the same season, in cereal equivalent. This has resulted in high food prices and predominance of imported food on the markets. A number of worrying trends underline the seriousness of the situation, including negative coping mechanisms such as sale of assets, reduction of food intake, children abandoning school, theft of crops, increased violence and displacement. Furthermore, admissions to therapeutic and supplementary feeding centres are increasing. Since January, WFP was forced to reduce rations in all programme activities because of a shortage of food stocks. With the expected arrival of food stocks, WFP has increased distribution levels up to 10,000 mt per month in April, and will continue with this amount in May. Following the harvests expected in June the food needs will be revised. The 2007B agricultural season is ongoing, although access to seeds has been limited. It is expected that the late June harvest will improve the situation.

Central African Republic: Situation Deteriorating

As of March 2007, most of the population is facing chronic food insecurity, with approximately 73 percent of the population living in deep poverty. Chronic malnutrition affects 39 percent of the population, with some 10 percent of the children suffering from severe malnutrition. The standard of living is deteriorating, with less meat and dairy products available because the M'bororo pastoralists in the area have fled with their cattle across the border to Chad or Cameroon. Agricultural recovery and food security continue to be hampered by persistent insecurity and inadequate availability of agricultural inputs, notably in northern parts.

Chad: Insecurity Threatens Agricultural Production

As of March 2007, FEWS NET reports that the food security situation in Chad is deteriorating for many internally displaced persons (IDPs) and surrounding host populations. The U.N. currently estimates that there are between 75,000 and 112,000 IDPs in Chad, out of which up to 75,000 may need food assistance (to date WFP has been assisting up to 50,000 IDPs). Increased humanitarian needs due to the continued rising numbers of IDPs come at a time when the unstable security situation in the eastern part of the country has limited humanitarian access, stalled implementation of some food for work and school feeding safety nets, and inhibited local populations from accessing market gardens and other sources of income diversification. Moreover, tensions between displaced populations and host communities are reportedly increasing as people vie for limited supplies of water, pasture and firewood. Continued civil insecurity and displacement also threaten to disrupt agricultural activities for the upcoming 2007 season.

Republic of Congo : Food Security Risk in Pool Region

As of May 2007, the Pool region is still vulnerable and in need of aid. The Government of the Republic of Congo estimates that at least 7,800 people remain displaced in Pool and these people still rely on the international community for food. Pool has been affected by persistent insecurity and the destruction of basic social infrastructures such as schools, roads and health centres, compounding food insecurity situation in the region.

Côte d’Ivoire: Food Assistance Requirement Continues

As of May 2007, emergency food assistance continues to be needed due to large numbers of IDPs and refugees. The humanitarian situation is likely to deteriorate in the short term if aid agencies are unable to access vulnerable populations. Labour shortages arising from population displacements, lack of agricultural support services in parts of the country, market segmentation and disruptions by insecurity are continuing to hamper food security.

Djibouti: Appeal for Assistance After Drought Declared

As of May 2007, ollowing the poor Heys/Dada season (October to February) rains and the delayed onset of the current Diraa/Sougoum season, the government of Djibouti has declared a drought situation in the inland pastoral zones. In a meeting organized at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the government officially appealed to the international community to help overcome the impact of drought on the livelihood and food security of the pastoralists, particularly those who do not receive remittances from urban areas and are dependent solely on livestock. In its appeal, the government emphasized malnutrition rates which are above international thresholds for emergency in both rural and urban areas. It is hoped that the drought declaration will bring additional attention to the significant shortfall for the regular WFP programs as well as additional support to UNICEF therapeutic and supplementary feeding programs in Djibouti. An additional US$ 6 million is needed for WFP operations in Djibouti through December 2007. About US$ 1 million is required immediately to avoid an interruption of food aid distributions in May. A total of 53,000 people (including 47,000 drought affected pastoralists and 6,000 refugees) dependent on food aid distributions will be affected.

DR Congo: Food Insecurity Remains an Issue

As of January 2007, food insecurity remains a major issue due to a combination of low quality seed stocks, limited access to appropriate ricultural tools, insect infestations, and continued insecurity, the impact of which is most acute among IDPs and returnee communities. Meanwhile, poor nutrition education remains an issue in other areas. WFP is only able to reach 500,000 of the 850,000 people targeted for food aid each month due to funding shortfalls. OCHA estimates there to be approximately 1.5 million IDPs in DRC, with more than 350,000 Congolese refugees residing in neighbouring countries according to UNHCR.

Eritrea: Pockets of Insecurity After Good Harvest

As of May 2007, overall food availability for rural households has improved due to the recent kiremti and bahri harvests. In most parts of the country, this year’s harvest was the best since the end of war (2000) due to the abundance and good distribution of rains during the crop-growing seasons. The 2006/7 harvest is expected to cover most households’ food requirements until a few months before the next harvest begins in October. With many of the farmers also owning livestock, the income from livestock sales will further stabilize the household food security. The exceptions are some pockets in Debub and Northern Red Sea where the recent harvest was below normal. The failure of azmera rains (March to May 2006) followed by poorly distributed kiremti rains in June, July and September 2006, at critical stages in the growth of certain crops (teff, sorghum, and chickpeas) resulted in low yields. The situation of the extreme poor (chronically food insecure) and other vulnerable groups in both rural areas and urban centers remains a cause of major concern.

Ethiopia : Below Average Belg Harvest

As of May 2007, despite an above average meher harvest, Ethiopia will need additional humanitarian assistance in 2007, especially in the Somali region. The Government of Ethiopia issued a Humanitarian Appeal for 2007. A total of 1.36 million people will require emergency food assistance, out of which around 71% are from Somali Region alone, while 17% are from Oromiya and the remainder in other regions. However, Tigray, Afar and Beneshangul Gumuz Regions are not part of the 2007 emergency appeal. An estimated 150,580 MT is required, of which about 90,000 MT is carry over stocks giving a net requirement of 60,580 MT. In 2007, the Government and humanitarian community are expected to increase the number of chronically food insecure people under the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) from the current level of 7.3 million to 8 million. On the whole, the Government of Ethiopia plans to support 9.36 million people, mostly through the PSNP. The actual relief beneficiaries and the timing of allocations of relief resources will be identified through enhanced consultations between the Government and the regions and ad-hoc multi-agency assessments of the food security situation in areas of concern. Early Warning, Disaster Preparedness and close monitoring of food security situations will continue to play a crucial role in preventing and responding to disasters as they are about to occur.Below average belg harvest is anticipated this year based on the performance of the season so far. Delayed onset of belg rains have resulted in below average area put under belg crops. This, coupled with prolonged dry spells in February/March and part of April will result in below average crop yields and production in the belg-growing areas. The performance of the rains over the coming two weeks will significantly influence the final harvest outcome.

The Gambia: Lean Season begins

As of May 2007, the nutritional situation for the refugees continues to remain at acceptable levels as shown in the Nutritional survey undertaken in March and further confirmed by regular field assessments undertaken in April. However, as the lean season has started, both the refugee families and the host communities are now more vulnerable. The food security situation therefore warrants careful continued monitoring. Currently 6,200 refugees from Casamance, Senegal remain in the Foni district in the Western Division of The Gambia and are being supported with food assistance from WFP. A further 910 refugees have now been identified by UNHCR and will be included in the WFP support from May onwards.

Guinea-Bissau: Market Factors Impacting on Food Security

As of May 2007, marketing problems in the cashew sector, the main source of cash income for rural households, are a continued risk to the food security of the most vulnerable population. Domestic production of cereals does not meet the country’s consumption needs and farmers have to buy imported rice to supplement their own production using revenue derived from the sale of cashew nuts. Traders were reluctant to buy the 2006 cashew production due to high prices, leaving farmers without income and triggering localized severe food insecurity in several areas. The Government has announced lower prices for this year’s harvest and has sent positive signals to the market on lifting restrictions on the cashew trade. Nonetheless, the evolution of farm gate prices for cashew nuts should continue to be closely monitored for signs of marketing problems.

Kenya: Overall Improvement Hampered by Flood Damage

As of May 2007, food security prospects are generally improving for the majority of pastoral and farming households. Significant improvements in key pastoral and cropping indicators are being reported across the country. However, rains disrupted any potential improvements in food security by displacing households and destroying lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Pastoralists outside flooded areas have experienced significant improvements in local environmental conditions. These improvements are expected to enhance livestock productivity and household food security in the coming months. While the majority of pastoralists have migrated back to normal wet-season grazing areas, a proportion were displaced and had to move away from flooded areas. The 2006/07 short-rains cropping season is well underway in key areas. In coastal areas where floods damaged the early planted crop, particularly in Kwale and Kilifi districts, maize has only just passed the post-germination stage.Rates of malnutrition remain high in most pastoral districts: Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates were ranging from 18 percent in Moyale to 30 percent in Marsabit district, well above the WHO’s emergency threshold of 15 percent, according to the nutrition survey undertaken in May 2006, but are believed to be lower now as a result of general food distributions and supplementary feeding programmes.

Lesotho: Severe Food Crisis may be Imminent

As of May 2007, a severe food crisis may soon affect Lesotho, with drought conditions expected to continue. The Meteorological Service predicts that there is a high likelihood that rainfall during the next quarter (April - June 2007), which is also winter season, will be below average, and temperatures above average. The Government pre-harvest crop assessment estimates that cereal production will be 30 - 40% below the 2005/06 levels. The CFSAM completed its field work, but data analyses and report writing is in progress. The team presented general observations but did not release any preliminary numbers. The general observation is that the situation is indeed bad, most especially for maize crops. Final CFSAM report is expected mid May. Lesotho has been experiencing high temperatures and below normal rainfall since January 2007. The high temperatures and low rainfall occurred at the most critical stage of the maize growth (flowering) when adequate moisture was needed. The most affected parts of the country are southern and western lowlands of the country. Rapidly rising prices in neighboring South Africa will likely have a major impact on the ability of poor households to access foodstuffs. According to WFP’s CHS monitoring system, only 10% of people living in the vulnerable southern lowlands and Senqu river valley areas regard agriculture as a significant source of food.

Madagascar: Crops Lost due to Storm Season

As of May 2007, heavy rains associated with tropical storm Jaya negatively affected the northeastern and northwestern areas of the country, previously impacted by cyclone Indlala, in early April. Before Indlala, the UN had estimated that 293,000 people would need assistance in coming months due to floods and cyclones. Jaya further deteriorated the food security situation of the population in the north. S ome 150,000 farming families have lost a total of 90,000 hectares of crop during the cyclone season. In addition, there is a serious drought in the south affecting 582,000 people in 33 communes.

Malawi: Improved Outlook

As of May 2007, the food security situation is still favourable and in most parts of the country farmers have started harvesting. Following a bumper harvest last season, official maize stocks remain high. The first round crop estimates predict that 3.1 million tons of maize will be produced nationally. With national requirements estimated to be 2.1 million metric tons, there may be a surplus of close to 1 million metric tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has completed its second round crop estimates and official results will be released soon. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) will carry out assessments in May 2007. The assessments will assist in determining the food security situation in the country. Government of Malawi has lifted the export ban on maize and has allowed the exportation of up to 400,000 mt through the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) after indication of another bumper harvest this year and carry-over stocks from the previous harvest. The maize is being exported mainly to Zimbabwe. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Private Sector development will jointly oversee the exportation process. 5,000 mt has already been exported to Zimbabwe.

Mali: Overall Food Security Favourable

As of May 2007, cereal is sufficiently abundant in markets and prices are stable or lower compared to last year and to the 5 year average. The only exceptions are a slight increase in the cost of millet and sorghum. The overall food security situation is considered to be good, though the region still suffers from high levels of child malnutrition.

Mauritania: Early Onset of Hunger Season

As of May 2007, the early onset of the hunger season is likely to cause new pockets of food insecurity. C urrent food security conditions indicate that the hunger season is settling three months earlier than usual. Reported food access problems are attributed to this year’s production shortfall, deficit production in previous years, limited cross-border trade with Senegal and Mali, and high market prices. According to FEWS NET, in the most likely scenario new pockets of food insecurity will appear in agropastoral and pastoral areas. The food security status of rural farming areas is expected to deteriorate from highly to extremely food insecure, possibly with localised food crises, especially in rainfed areas. Household food security will gradually deteriorate while malnutrition rates are expected to climb due to continuing shortages of crops and income. Farmer families are expected to turn to borrowing, out-migration and assistance programmes.

Mozambique: Disasters, Drought Affect Food Security

As of May 2007, although the emergency response to the floods/cyclone disasters in recent months has now shifted to the reconstruction phase, the effects of the disasters will continue to affect the food security condition of thousands of households. The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) reports that since early this year, nearly 200,000 people have been displaced by floods and an additional 135,000 people were affected when Cyclone Favio made landfall in late February. The two disasters destroyed thousands of hectares of crops within weeks of the principal harvest, leaving over 300,000 people food insecure. Affected households are receiving food assistance from April through June while they await a possible second season harvest in July.Drought conditions in southern Mozambique over the past several months have caused crop failure in inland Gaza and Inhambane and parts of Maputo provinces. The poorest households are quickly depleting their reserves from the 2005/06 harvest, and will soon be forced to reduce consumption, rely on market purchases earlier than normal and employ negative coping strategies such as selling productive assets. Urgent provision of short-cycle variety seeds is needed for the second season in April-June. If the upcoming second season is poor as well, or if households do not obtain needed inputs, many households may be forced to rely on negative coping strategies throughout much of 2007.

Namibia: Fears of Drought, Flood Damage Affects Food Production

As of May 2007, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, the north-central regions of Namibia might face severe drought this season due to poor rainfall. Planting was delayed due to the dry spell that hit the country at the end of 2006 and most crops in these areas are still at infancy stages. In addition, crops planted in December have wilted. A further crop assessment mission lead by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry is expected to take place in May to quantify the post harvest situation. Although the Zambezi River is starting to gradually recede, authorities and humanitarian agencies are concerned about looming food shortages and disease outbreaks following the burst of Zambezi River banks. The bursting of the banks caused flooding in the Caprivi flood plains. So far some 15,000 people have been displaced by the floods . As per a Regional Emergency Management Unit (REMU) meeting held recently, there were serious indications that most of the crops in the low lying areas of the Caprivi region wilted due to drought or were flooded beyond recovery. The majority of the people have lost their source of livelihood including their livestock. Specific WFP target groups in northern Namibia, namely orphans and vulnerable children, continue to remain exposed to chronic food shortages at the household level, and chronic malnutrition remains a major problem. Food assistance will be required for these groups until they can be absorbed into the Government's social safety net scheme, which is hoped, will happen towards the end of 2007

Niger: Pockets of Food Insecurity Persist

As of May 2007, despite overall satisfactory cereal production in the Sahel, numerous pockets of food insecurity exist in Niger. Household stocks will continue to be depleted as Niger enters the lean season (May-September). Extremely vulnerable zones in Niger include villages which are experiencing a significant cereal deficit and have little adjustment capacity. 26 communes with a total population of 376 830 spread over 459 villages are in an extremely vulnerable situation. Some households’ access to food is handicapped as their food stocks, which were limited to begin with due to localized production deficits, have been exhausted and they lack the cash to purchase food in the markets. Female-headed households and households dependent on precarious sources of revenue such as the sale of firewood or straw, daily labour, and artisanal production are the most affected. The provisional results of the joint Government/WFP/FAO/UNICEF food security and household vulnerability assessment indicate that 30% of households are affected by food insecurity, 9% of which (approximately 1,100, 000 people) are qualified as severely food insecure. The most affected departments are in Tillaberi region (Tillaberi, Ouallam), Tahoua region (Tahoua, Keita, Bouza), Zinder region (Tanout) and Dosso region (Loga). The results of the Government/UNICEF/WFP nutritional survey of November 2006 indicate that the rate of global acute malnutrition is now 10.3%- as opposed to 15.3% in November 2005. The global chronic malnutrition is 43.8% as opposed to 50% in November 2005. The decrease in global acute malnutrition is a major success story for the country, and a result of the efforts of the Government, UN and NGO partners and the increased capacity to treat malnutrition.

Nigeria: Low Cereal Prices Influenced By Avian Flu

As of March 2007, cereal prices in Nigeria reportedly remain low, reflecting the bumper crop harvested in 2006. In addition to the good harvest, the low prices are due to the effects avian flu has had last year on the Nigerian poultry sector, which absorbs an important share of domestic maize production. The re-emergence of avian flu in recent weeks in the northern part of the country has dampened hope for a strong recovery of the poultry sector in the near future. In spite of a government plan to buy 150,000 tonnes of maize in 2007 in order to support declining producer prices, a sustainable recovery of the cereal sector will depend largely on the evolution of the avian flu epidemics in Nigeria and the subregion.

Rwanda: Localized Food Insecurity

As of May 2007, the household food security situation in Rwanda is following two distinct trends; on the one hand, households are currently food secure who received above-average season 2007A harvests that ended in January. While on the other hand, localized food insecurity remains in parts of the Southern and Western provinces and Bugesera district of eastern Province. This is a result of high population densities, poor soil fertility and in Bugesera, a poor 2007A bean production. Food insecurity remains also in Rusizi, Rubavu and Nyabihu Districts of Western province which experienced heavy rains and flooding at the beginning of the year. The Disaster Management unit, under the Prime Minister’s office, recently led an assessment team to Rutsiro district and is preparing to distribute free food in the most affected sectors of Kivumu, Ruhango, Manihira and Mukura. This follows heavy rains and a prolonged dry period that destroyed harvestable crops and confounded planting activities. WFP sub office and the VAM unit will meet with district authorities to plan for FFW activities to support those families not eligible for government free food. Late and erratic rains delayed the planting of sorghum by about one and a half months. If the current rains end early there will be a significant decline in season 2007 sorghum production, the most important cereal during season B, especially in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The Foot and mouth disease in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts, and a cholera outbreak in Nyagatare have been controlled and are no more threatening livelihoods. Food prices continue to be above average, restricting household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labour for income.

Senegal: Drop in Cereal Production

As of May 2007, the estimate of aggregate cereal production in 2006 has been revised downward by national statistics services to about 988,000 mt, a decrease of about 33 percent compared to 2005 and about 14 percent compared to the average of the past five years. The reduction results from the impact of erratic rains and inadequate supply of inputs in 2006. Groundnut production, the main source of cash income for rural households, is estimated to have decreased by 34 percent to 46,578mt. Production of beans, sesame and watermelon also dropped significantly. While supply of millet and sorghum was limited due to low domestic production and limited selling by farmers (exacerbated by the ongoing commercialisation of groundnuts), supply of imported rice has increased, resulting in an adequate overall food supply situation: cereal prices continued to follow the normal trend, having increased only slightly in January and February.

Somalia: Insecurity, Floods & Drought Impact Food Security

As of May 2007, the floods of last December greatly affected riverine areas – with hundreds of people displaced and an almost complete destruction of riverine crops. Furthermore, riverine populations have been in a state of humanitarian emergency for more than 3 years. Their food security situation is critical and worsening. Despite a forecast of near normal rainfall for the next 3 months in Somalia, localized floods are still expected in late April and early May. The UN technical agency SWALIM on 20 April issued a moderate flood warning for the Shabelle River. Due to heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands during April, water levels are rising in the Shabelle, and moderate to heavy rains are forecast for Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands in the short run. mIn rainfed areas, away from the river, crops have been well above normal, and livestock conditions have drastically improved due to the exceptional rains of 2006. However in the most drought-affected areas of 2005, such as Gedo and Lower Juba, calving and milking are still at levels below normal. A large portion of the pastoral population in these groups will still require humanitarian assistance, at least until mid-2007. Cattle owners remain the most vulnerable and food insecure groups as they lost the highest number of animals. The Garissa market recently reopened which could assist in improving trade for the pastoral community. The incidence reports of symptoms of RVF have reduced in the last month. Indeed, livestock prices remain high; while cereal prices have decreased. Malnutrition rates remain high in the Gedo and the riverine worst affected areas.

Sudan: Mixed Outlook Due to Insecurity, Population Returns

As of March 2007, the results of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in northern Sudan, which assessed the outcome of this year’s main season harvest and the food supply outlook for 2006/07 marketing year, have been finalized. Despite floods and insecurity in parts, overall harvest prospects are good, especially in northern and central Sudan, due to good rains and an increased area under cultivation.

Food security prospects in Darfur are worrisome, however, as the deteriorating security situation may disrupt the harvesting of current crops. The bulk of the staple millet crop in Sudan is produced in Darfur, and any disruption to harvesting could have a significant and negative impact on food security.

Current food security conditions are stable in most parts of southern Sudan, despite localized areas of moderate food insecurity affecting 350,000 to 450,000 people. These conditions are not expected to change significantly until April, when the traditional hunger season begins. Large scale population returns related to the population census scheduled to take place in sothern Sudan in November 2007 could have a significant negative effect on food security, however. The increased scale of population returns in 2007 will overload the already limited coping capacities and increase competition for scarce labour opportunities and off-farm food sources. The impact of returnees will be felt most in the densely populated areas of Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states, where according to WFP 545,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007.

In eastern Sudan, a Nutrition and Food Security Assessment undertaken in Red Sea State in July has shown very high rates of malnutrition, with all localities exhibiting GAM above the 15% threshold and SAM above 3%.

Swaziland: Food Shortage Looming

As of May 2007, due to erratic weather conditions, Swaziland might soon face its worst food shortage in the last 15 years. Much below normal rainfall in the 2006/07 rainy season, particularly in the second half of the season, coupled with high temperatures has resulted in widespread crop failure. Preliminary results of the crop and food supply assessment observed a drastic reduction of crop production across the whole country, estimated to be up to 70% of last year’s production. E conomic access to food for certain segments of the population will remain difficult due to and critical food shortages anticipated throughout the 2007/08 consumption period, and socio-economic crisis due to the continuing impact of HIV/AIDS. Emergency assistance will be required by large sections of population

Tanzania: Favourable Food Security Situation

As of May 2007, according to the December report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, 2005/06 domestic food production reached 10.9 million MT. This represents a food self-sufficiency ratio of 112 percent for the 2006/07 national needs without including international trade, domestic stocks and other factors. In view of the positive food security projection, the government lifted a ban on food grain exports in January 2007. While the overall national food security seems promising, there could be pockets of food shortages due to localized hazards like poor rains, floods and distribution constraints. As of the end of December 2006, the stock position of the Strategic Grain Reserve is at a comfortable level of 108,500 MT of cereal. This will enable the Government to respond to future isolated food insecurity cases. Good rains continue to fall throughout Tanzania, and prospects for the upcoming harvests in both unimodal and bimodal areas are good. Food stocks are being released on the market as a result of the good harvest prospects, causing food prices to decline unseasonably in many markets and improving food access for market-dependent households. However, maize prices have remained high and continued to increase in markets in the Lake Victoria region and the southern coast, restricting food access to market-dependant households in these areas. The heavy rains have improved pasture conditions, which has reduced pastoralist movement in search of pasture, increased the availability of milk and improved the overall food security of pastoralist households. The potential spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) from Kenya poses a risk to pastoralist food security, however. Heavy rains in central parts of Tanzania continue to impede transportation and affect movement of people and food commodities.

Uganda: Risk of Food Insecurity in Karamoja Region

As of March 2007, at least 40 percent of the population in Uganda’s Karamoja region lacks adequate food stock, and is at risk of increasing food insecurity due to lower than normal crop harvests in the 2006 single season. Unseasonable rains since October and subsequent improved pasture and water availability are nevertheless facilitating recovery. WFP has started food aid distributions to an estimated 500,000 people. The results of the January assessment, in the areas not covered by the November assessment, will give a clear picture of overall food security conditions in the region.

Zambia: Good Food Production

As of May 2007, the Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) will be undertaking an in-depth food security and vulnerability assessment to determine the impact of flood and prolonged dry spells on the 2006/07 crop and livestock production. The assessment will try to determine the effects of varied rainfall on health and nutrition status of children under-five in the affected areas, the impact of varied rainfall on markets, and try to determine and food and non-food needs if any. Flooding in Western, Eastern and North-Western Provinces has abated but may pose a threat to long-term food security. The VAC announced in March that 295,148 people have been directly affected by the floods would need immediate food assistance equating to around 7,084mt. The Government of Zambia is providing the necessary support right now; however WFP anticipates that it will be required to assist with longer term interventions for people whose crops have been wiped out until the next harvest in 14/15 months. In coming months, FEWS NET is forecasting stable food security conditions due to good production and large carryover stocks, adequately supplied markets and stable and low prices. Some limited assistance will be required by flood affected households, mainly in north-western and western provinces. Emergency assistance will also be required to combat water borne diseases.

Zimbabwe: Acute Food Shortage

As of May 2007, preliminary reports indicate that the southern half of the country is facing near crop failure for the 2007 harvest as result of well below normal rainfall levels, late crop planting (due to late start of rains) and critical input shortages. The Government recently conducted a national crop assessment, which has been completed and forwarded to Cabinet for approval. In addition, officials from FAO and WFP, at the invitation of the Zimbabwean Government, are currently in-country to conduct a Crop and Food Supply Assessment mission (CFSAM). The assessment is scheduled to run between the 25 April and 18 May and will be used to assess summer cereal production and food assistance requirements for the country.

Asia

Afghanistan: Widespread Drought Affecting Millions

As of May 2007, the country continues to suffer from widespread drought, which is affecting the 2006 wheat crop and impacting up to 2.5 million people, especially in the north and central regions. Some 1.9 million Afghans are being targeted with food assistance as inadequate and poorly distributed precipitation have resulted in severe losses of harvest in mostly rain-fed agro-ecological zones. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the food shortage at 1.2 mn mt, one quarter of the annual consumption. The impact on irrigation reserves also significantly reduced yields of irrigated wheat.Heavy rains in late March and April, aggravated by rapidly melting winter snows, triggered flooding and avalanches throughout Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan declared humanitarian emergencies in 13 of its 34 provinces and has requested urgent assistance from the international community. Floods also hit the capital, Kabul, causing the Kabul River to burst its banks, displacing some 1,100 families. In the western province of Herat, up to 1,700 houses were destroyed and in the eastern province of Kunar, more than 1,100 houses were damaged. In addition, tens of thousands of hectares of agricultural land were damaged in many parts of the country just as crops are due to be planted. Hundreds of families also lost livestock. Damaged roads, rugged terrain and insecurity have impeded the humanitarian response and some flood-affected people have still to receive assistance, especially in the central highlands.

Bangladesh: Market Prices Warrant Attention

As of May 2007, recent untimely rain has been welcomed for Boro rice planting although problems of post harvest handling in low lying pockets exists. The unusual rise in rice prices after Aman harvest warrants due attention. Water-logging from much earlier floods (August-September 2006) in the low-lying south-west districts remain a problem, affecting approximately 100,000 households. Although relief interventions have increased in the recent period, there is a general consensus that longer-term rehabilitation and sustainable recovery assistance is needed.

Timor Leste: Food Insecurity Worsened by Drought

As of May 2007, the precarious food security situation has been further worsened by a drought during the early period of the current main crop season. A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) is visiting the country to assess the impact of adverse weather on crop production (mainly maize), markets, and food security of the vulnerable population. An estimated 100,000 Timorese (10 percent of the country’s population) remain in IDP camps, meanwhile.

Indonesia: Overall Food Supply Satsisfactory

As of May 2007, Indonesia continues to be hit hard by natural disasters, and in recent months has suffered severe floods, landslides and mudslides. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory, but pockets of serious malnutrition among the poorest people remain a concern, particularly in eastern Indonesia. Though the overall economy continues to grow, over 5 million people were added to the rolls of the very poor in 2006. The 2006 aggregate paddy production is officially forecast at about 54.8 million tons, the third consecutive good crop, reflecting the ample irrigation water supplies. The 2006 maize crop is forecast at some 12.5 million tons, the same level as last year. The overall food supply situation in Indonesia is satisfactory. While the national cereal supply position is satisfactory, a large number of the poorest population, especially those affected by recent natural disasters, continue to require assistance from the Government, or external agencies. WFP is supporting the Government in fighting malnutrition and food insecurity through its nutritional rehabilition programme, which targets assistance to the poorest of the poor.

DPR Korea: Food Deficit Confirmed

As of May 2007, the Government of DPR Korea has confirmed a food deficit of one million metric tones. This figure is in line with the 2007 estimation made by FAO on the size of the food gap. In 2006 there was a significant reduction in the external sources of food arriving in the country. Food imports were approximately 315,000 tons in 2006, which represents only about 25 percent of that received in 2005. This means that over 10 percent of the 2006 national minimum food needs were not met. If food aid is received, ensuring supplies arrive in time to be distributed to the most vulnerable during the lean season may prove challenging. UNFPA has reached agreement with Government for the conduct of the first nation-wide census since 1990. Enumeration to take place in late-2008 with findings to be published in early 2009.

Nepal: Poor Harvest Prompting Emergency Response

As of May 2007, food security and crop analysis estimates indicate approximately 400,000 people are vulnerable to food insecurity following a poor harvest in drought-affected areas of Miid-Western, Far-Western and Eastern Nepal. In December 2006, WFP extended its emergency food aid operation in Nepal through mid-June 2007. A total of 375,000 people in eight districts of Mid- and Far- Western Nepal will receive emergency food rations. WFP has been unable to reach an additional 200,000 vulnerable households in the Eastern Terai as a result of continued insecurity in the region.

Pakistan: Livelihood Sources of the Population Under Severe Strain

As of 23 October, the Balochistan Government has declared thirteen districts as most severely affected areas by drought. The livelihood sources of the population at large are under severe strain. Sindh Government has also declared five districts including Tharparkar as drought calamity hit areas. In order to assist the Provincial Government to monitor the effects of drought, WFP has prepared a Drought Monitoring Checklist ( DMC ) and has shared it with the Relief Commissioner of Balochistan.

Philippines: Good Production Despite Regional Storm Damage

As of 2007, in the aftermath of several tropical storms, severe damage to the recently planted rice and maize crops in Bicol region has been reported, with higher losses of maize since this crop is more susceptible to water damage than rice. Preliminary Government estimates indicate that losses of maize amount to US $6.4 millions and those of rice to US $5 millions. The worst hit provinces are Albay, Camarines Sur, and Camarines Norte. At national level, the 2006 aggregate paddy production is officially forecast at a record 15.3 million tonnes, some 10 percent above five-year average reflecting generally favourable weather during the cropping seasons, the distribution of higher yielding seeds and expanded (irrigated) areas planted. Similarly, the maize harvest is expected to reach a record level of 6 million tonnes, compared to 5.3 million tonnes last year and the five-year average of 4.8 million tonnes.

Latin America

Bolivia: Crop Loss due to Flooding

As of May 2007, Bolivian Civil Defence reports that some 73,000 hectares of agricultural crops (soja, rice and maize) were lost in the lowlands due to flooding in early 2007. Soja producers assert that the number surpasses 115,000 hectares.

Cuba: Poor Raw Sugar Output

As of January 2007, raw sugar output is forecast to drop slightly compared to last year, with wheat and rice imports remaining roughly the same. The harvest of 2006 sugar cane crop is completed, and raw sugar output is early forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, below last year's negative record of 1.3 million tonnes. The poor result is essentially due to the progressive reduction of acreage and milling capacity that started in 2003 as a consequence of unattractive sugar international prices. Wheat and rice imports in the 2006/07 year are forecast to be 950,000 tonnes and 750,000 tonnes respectively, very close to last year.

El Salvador: Corn Price Increase

As of May 2007, the international price of yellow corn has increased in 85% since February 2005, and for February 2008 a 50% increase is expected. The local market in El Salvador has followed the same tendency, and the Government has decided to substitute the planting area of other crops to reduce the import of yellow corn. Still, there may be a reduced accessibility to this food crop in the country.

Guatemala: El Niño Conditions Threaten Food Security

As of March 2007, moderate El Niño conditions will bring a long and dry summer, a late start of the rainy season (normally beginning in April) and more intense cold fronts in 2007. A late rainy season could delay harvests, leading to a longer period of food shortages.

Haiti: Good Paddy Crop Production Prospects

As of January 2007, harvesting of second season paddy crops is about to start and production prospects are good following beneficial abundant and well distributed rains during the hurricane season. The forecast for 2006 aggregate maize production is 180,000 tonnes, slightly below the last five years’ average. Import requirements for the 2006/07 year are anticipated to be about 270,000 tonnes of wheat and 320,000 tonnes of rice.

Honduras: Further Assistance Required

As of May 2007, poor and badly distributed rainfall will cause 300,000 households to suffer a 35% food deficit until August 2007. During 2006, basic grain yields in South-West Honduras decreased due to drought conditions, further degrading the livelihood systems of populations already highly vulnerable to food insecurity. Recent analysis of some key food and nutritional security indicators in the worst affected municipalities shows increasing levels of underweight among children under the age of five. The highest levels of underweight were found in the municipalities of Duyure, Choluteca, Cuararen, Francisco Morazan, San Antonio de Flores, Texiguat and El Paraiso. In the affected areas, acute malnutrition is affecting 6 percent of children under 5 while an estimated 67 percent are reported to be suffering from anemia. According to FEWS NET, a total of 1500 MT of food is estimated to be required to assist the affected population in the region for a period of three months. WFP has currently only 433 MT available.

Nicaragua: Postrera Crop Loss Poses Risk to Food Security

As of January 2007, there has been an 11 percent loss of postrera crop areas throughout the country. This situation is likely to affect food security between December 2006 and May 2007. The worst affected departments will be Madriz, Nueva Segovia and Matagalpa. Households will depend on food purchasing throughout the harvesting period. In February, the situation might further deteriorate due to the concomitance of low labor demand and shortages of the previous harvest reserves.

Peru: Rodents, Frost and Floods Affect Food Production

As of May 2007, Peru declared a state of emergency in 6 regions (including Lima) due to rat plague . Rodents have affected an area populated by some 150,000 people and 13,000 hectares of land serving crops, livestock and naturally growing vegetation. The situation might negatively impact food insecurity and health hazards due to diseases associated with rodents . The state of emergency will last for three months but could be extended if the problem is not solved. According to a recent report released by the Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil de Peru, frost has caused damages in several departments. Approximately 155,000 hectares of crop are estimated to have been either lost or damaged, affecting more than 180,000 families . According to the report, a state of emergency was declared in the departments of Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Puno and Apurmac on 28 February. The situation needs to be monitored as it can have implications for food security in affected areas. Food production in San Martin, Huanuco, Junin, Huancavelica and Puira was affected by severe flooding of the flooding of the Huallaga, Mayo and Chanchamayo Rivers in December-January. Some 8,522 hectares of agricultural land and more than 6,000 head of livestock were lost, prompting the Government of Peru to make an official request to for food assistance.